For Flash to remain viable, Adobe has to position it for applications that can't be done well, or at all, with HTML5. It appears that Adobe has decided to focus on 3D applications with Version 11 of Adobe's Flash Player and Version 3 of Adobe AIR, both of which are scheduled for release in early October. Flash 11 has a new GPU-accelerated 3D API called Stage 3D, which should dramatically improve 2D and 3D rendering rates on devices with compatible hardware. Adobe claims that, compared with the current Flash Player's capability to render thousands of non z-buffered triangles at 30 Hz, Flash 11 will be able to render hundreds of thousands of z-buffered triangles at 60 Hz.
Flash is currently very popular for browser-based casual games, but Adobe wants Flash 11 to be used for far more graphically-intensive games, and has signed up EA Interactive, Ubisoft and Zygna to support the new capabilities in their games. The problem, as Wired's Webmonkey site points out, is that WebGL can provide at least the same level of 3D performance in browsers without plug-ins, and WebGL is an industry standard. However, Internet Explorer currently doesn't support WebGL at all, and other browsers have widely varying WebGL performance.
So, Adobe may be able to carve out a niche with Flash for 3D applications, but it's hard to see it as anything more than temporary. Browser developers will be improving their WebGL performance in parallel with increasing their HTML5 compliance. The real test will be how many developers successfully market games written with Stage 3D.
3 comments:
Adobe Flash's clock is ticking extremely fast. if it is the wrong way, i don't think so.
html5 is exactly if not, far more incapable as the current versions of html.
the real strength of flash is that if you want to develop an app, after 2 months the picture might be:
the html/css/js/[server] coder doesn't even know where to begin; the native programmer might deliver an alpha version on one machine; the flash coder could easily have a post beta build out on desktop, mobile, TV, browser, ...
webGL can't even come near to the speed of development and quality of FP11 or AIR3. for once, it takes years to do something on webGL that doesn't even run on IE. there is no and never be enough trust in multiple browsers displaying a consistent pixel perfect result (mainly because W3C is a joke, after 17 years they where unable to force consistency on the most basic of components).
50% of all web going mobile devices , 99% (in fact all of them witch have a decent OS) of all desktops, some TVs and consoles support the platform in one way or the other. there is no programming platform that came even near to these numbers. that for me is enough to say that flash is here to stay.
you should have seen an augmented version of unreal 3 running in the browser, by now.
and stage3D is just a tiny part of the 11 milestone.
I can understand your sensitivity to Flash's decline, given that you make your living as a Flash developer. Nevertheless, what matters isn't how technologically better a platform is (the "better mousetrap" analogy) but how customers perceive it. The perception, which Adobe is doing nothing effective to counter, is that Flash is a dying platform, and that Adobe is grasping at straws to keep it alive.
I wish you well in your dedication to Flash, but I'd suggest that you brush up on HTML5.
there are around 10 000 apps created on the platform and the majority is iOS only, so, i'm not sensitive at all, in fact i'm impressed how they handled the lies that jobs putt out on the platform a few years ago.
i've been doing web development for 4 years, and believe me, there is no height from witch i don't crap on w3c and it's html5 of, especially now, when there are more browsers out there then PCs.
being a programming purist, i can say for sure there are just a handful of developers and almost 0 bloggers who actually know what they talk about when they bring up the much overestimated buzzword "html5"
besides, just as stage3D is the tip of the iceberg, i have several other talents which i and others enjoy.
by saying that it's a dying platform, you're wrong. saying that customers believe it's a dying platform. you are somewhat right. the types of customers who want a site up and running, may it be e-business or simple presence, they excursively choose html. and they are right about that. unless they want an elevated user experience and eyecandy, flash is of no use.
the latest steps of adobe (with some ... actually ... help from Jobs (may rest in peace)) is just necessary to get rid of those pseudo tween developers.
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