What's really behind the decline in brick & mortar bookstores?

This morning, Bloomberg Television covered yesterday's resignation of Barnes & Noble CEO William Lynch and subsequent management reorganization. Bloomberg showed a bar graph of the decline in the number of bookstores in the U.S., and said that Amazon was responsible for the decline. Yes, Amazon played a part, but there are other reasons that are at least as important:

• The decline in the number of bookstores began in the 1980s, when Barnes & Noble's and Borders's superstores decimated independent booksellers.
• U.S. book sales started declining years before the 2007 introduction of Amazon's Kindle and the 2008 Great Recession. People are simply spending less time reading books.
• eBooks from Amazon and other retailers have cannibalized sales of print books. In other words, eBook sales haven't increased total U.S. book sales revenues--they've only slowed the rate of decline.

So, you've got three factors responsible for the decline in the number of bookstores:

1. Price competition, which was used by Barnes & Noble and Borders to kill off a large part of the U.S. bookstore industry even before Amazon was founded in 1995 (but which Amazon has certainly used to its advantage.)
2. Declining book sales, which pressures all booksellers but puts the most pressure on retailers that don't have other product lines to fall back on for revenue.
3. eBooks, which generally aren't sold in brick & mortar bookstores (although they could be.)

Simba Information: Waterstones' deal with Amazon will be "...one of the biggest screw-ups in the history of book retail"

Book Business has an interview with Simba Information Senior Analyst Michael Norris, whose company just published its Trends in Trade Book Retailing study. Norris reiterates something that I've been saying for a while: eBooks aren't growing the publishing market--they're just cannibalizing print sales. Further, print sales are falling faster than eBook sales are growing, so at best, eBooks are slowing the market's overall rate of decline.

Norris says that Barnes & Noble's relative success in the eBook business has a great deal to do with its stores, and with its promotion of Nook hardware and accessories in those stores. He's puzzled by B&N's decision to break its Nook business away from the rest of the company--and even more puzzled by Waterstones' decision to partner with Amazon for Kindle eReaders and tablets. Norris compared Waterstones' deal to Borders' disastrous decision to outsource its online eBookstore to Amazon, and said "...I’ve really got to hand it to companies like Amazon, they know how to kill a competitor and make it look like suicide." He added, "It’s going to be one of the biggest screw-ups in the history of book retail."

When asked what book retailers that sell eBooks can do, Norris said "I urge every retailer who does sell ebooks to buy one of their own ebooks and then buy the same or similar ebook from Amazon, then think...about what kind of experience is going to make people come back. "

The end of Borders

By now, most of my readers know that Borders in the U.S. has given up on trying to find a buyer to keep its stores in operation, and plans to submit a liquidation plan to the bankruptcy court on Thursday. Despite Borders' management's claims, most of its wounds were self-inflicted: The company missed the key transitions in the book industry over the past several years. First, instead of investing in its own online presence, it partnered with Amazon and ended up sending traffic and revenue to the company that became its biggest competitor. (It eventually withdrew from the Amazon deal and created its own online store, but the damage was done.) Next, instead of building its own eReader and eBook infrastructure, it invested in Canada's Kobo and marketed its eReaders, as well as a mishmash of other models and brands. Kobo has only had a truly competitive eReader in the last two months, far too late to help Borders.

Now, at the 11th hour, Kobo is trying to get the bankruptcy court to give it a right of first refusal for repurchasing of Borders' share of the company. It's unlikely that Kobo's request will derail the liquidation plan. Assuming that the judge approves at least the retail store portion of the plan, going-out-of-business sales will begin in some Borders locations as early as Friday, with all stores expected to close by the end of September.

Beyond the loss of over 10,000 full- and part-time jobs, the biggest loss will be the closure of Borders' retail stores. No more than 50 stores are likely to be taken over by Books-a-Million and Barnes & Noble after Borders closes, and some areas will be completely without a local bookstore. Unlike Barnes & Noble, which built "cookie cutter" stores, many of Borders' locations are architecturally interesting, like its store in a converted movie theater in Palo Alto, CA.

Perhaps the saddest point is that Barnes & Noble's and Borders' aggressive discounting drove thousands of independent bookstores out of business. Now, Borders is closing, Barnes & Noble is struggling, and Amazon's strength makes it very unlikely that we'll see a renaissance of independent bookstores.

The "Connected Store" and the future of retailing

Intel and a number of partners, including Adidas, Procter & Gamble, Best Buy, Kraft Foods and the MIT Media Lab, are showcasing a two-story, 2,400 square foot "Connected Store" at this week's National Retail Federation Convention in New York. Intel is using large flat-panel, touch-sensitive displays to showcase how its processors can be used to improve the retail "experience".

The Adidas demonstration uses three displays to showcase Adidas' entire shoe line. Shoes that aren't in stock can be delivered to the store for pickup or directly to the customer's home within 48 hours. The Best Buy demo, built in conjunction with MIT's Media Lab, enables customers to get a demonstration of any product on any vertical surface in the store.

These demonstrations go far beyond the digital signage systems found in many retail stores, in that consumers can interact with them instead of simply passively watching them. These systems could help drive a trend to downsize retail locations. For decades in the U.S., there's been a proliferation of "big box" stores, led by Walmart, Target, Costco and Best Buy. The problem is that real estate is leased based on square feet, and bigger stores means higher real estate costs, as well as higher costs for utilities and more employees needed to staff the physical space.

The "big box" cost problem is very clear at Borders and Barnes & Noble. They've built bigger and bigger bookstores, even as print book sales have declined. Many consumers still like to look at physical books in bookstores, but they then go home and purchase them online as eBooks. Bookstores can recreate the "books on bookshelves" experience using much less floor space with big-screen touch-sensitive displays. Consumers can open "books", page through them, and make a purchase decision right there. eBooks can be sent to their portable devices for immediate download, and the sale is made by the retailer, not by Amazon or another competitor.

These systems will also enable consumer electronics retailers to shrink their stores. They can keep the most popular products in stock in the stores for immediate delivery, yet let consumers interact with and order the same assortment of products that they already carry on their websites. One might argue that consumers can do that already from home on their personal computers and tablets, but closing the sale in the store means that those customers won't compare prices with other online merchants and buy at the lowest price.

In short, the era of the "big box" store isn't over, but "little box" stores enhanced with interactive digital technologies will take their place in many markets and segments.

Borders closes its Chicago Michigan Avenue store

Yesterday was the end of an era, as Borders closed its huge Michigan Avenue bookstore located across from the Water Tower in downtown Chicago. The closing wasn't related to Borders most recent financial problems; the company originally planned to close the store a year ago, but negotiated a one-year lease extension. However, it is indicative of the larger changes in the overall U.S. retail book business. Borders was in its just-closed location for 16 years, and for the first time in decades, there will be no bookstores on Michigan Avenue, one of the premier shopping locations in the U.S.

Borders will be replaced by Topshop, a British-based clothing chain. There are many clothing stores on Michigan Avenue, and while I wish Topshop well, I also wish that there had been room there for at least one bookstore. There may still be, but in an era of eBooks, bookstores in the U.S. are going to have to get used to much smaller locations. As I've written previously, the new model is likely to look like an oversized Starbucks with a modest selection of print titles, rather than a book superstore with a Starbucks inside it.

Could a Borders bankruptcy bring Indigo Books to the U.S.?

Borders' financial struggles are well-known; I wrote about the company's decision to delay payments to some of its publisher vendors, and its notice that if it can't raise additional capital, it will be in default on its existing financing by the end of Q1 2011. The most obvious scenario is that if Borders is unable to raise more capital, it will go bankrupt and its stores will close. However, there's an alternative scenario that's intriguing (it's also entirely speculative at this point).

Rather than develop its own eBook reader as Amazon and Barnes & Noble did, Borders decided to partner with a Canadian company, Indigo Books, for its Kobo reader. Indigo has 70% of the retail market for books in Canada under the Chapters and Indigo brands. If Borders goes bankrupt, it could become an appealing acquisition for Indigo. Under U.S. law, all of Borders' leases would be cancelled, and Indigo could pick and choose the stores that it wants to keep open. Borders' debt, pension and benefits obligations would also be wiped out. Indigo could bring its successful merchandising approach to the U.S. Together with its operations in Canada, it would have the purchasing power to compete with Barnes & Noble, albeit on a smaller, more economical scale.

Indigo could also dump the non-Kobo eReaders (Sony, Aluratek, Velocity, etc.) sold at Borders and focus exclusively on its own devices. This would decrease consumer confusion and increase Kobo's market share.

Rather than Borders buying Barnes & Noble (unlikely), Barnes & Noble buying Borders (unwise) or Borders going out of business (unfortunate), an acquisition of Borders out of bankruptcy by Indigo could make a lot of sense for Indigo, publishers and consumers.