The "Google Phone" (HTC Nexus One) Begins to Make Sense

A short time ago, Engadget posted part of the FCC certification for the HTC Nexus One, the phone that Google mass-distributed to its employees last weekend. There's been a lot of speculation that the GSM-compatible would be sold unlocked by Google (meaning that in the U.S., it would work with AT&T and T-Mobile.) Frankly, a lot of the story didn't make sense--why would Google start competing with its biggest distributors just as Android started getting market traction?

The FCC certification shows that the Nexus One will work on a variety of international GSM networks, but it will only work in the U.S. in G3 on T-Mobile--AT&T customers can use it as a phone, but data speeds will be limited to EDGE. And, now the story begins to make sense. T-Mobile has been Google's primary partner in the U.S. since the launch of the first Android phone, the G1.

So, here's my speculation: Google is going to sell the phone, and technically, it will work on either T-Mobile or AT&T, but there will be a special T-Mobile account just for the Google Phone. It will be based on T-Mobile's Pay-as-you-go pricing models, and it can be considerably less expensive than T-Mobile's prepaid plans because T-Mobile isn't subsidizing the price of the phone.

Google will, in my opinion, subsidize the price of the phone, because the user will be locked into a suite of advertising-supported Google functions that work anywhere, even on WiFi, and even if the Nexus One doesn't have any GSM SIM card at all. (Yes. that means that Google Phone users will be able to take advantage of Google Voice wherever there's an open WiFi hotspot.)

T-Mobile won't be threatened by the Google Phone, because they'll be the preferred broadband voice and data service. Verizon won't be threatened, because the T-Mobile 3G network is even less well built out than AT&T's. Sprint has a foot in just about every camp, and they're becoming less of a market factor every day. AT&T is hostile to Android, so there's no reason for Google to play nice with them. Perhaps most importantly, Google has a chance to dramatically increase market penetration of Android phones and the appeal of the Android platform to developers, and they'll move a lot more mobile advertising inventory.

Here comes the G1

Yesterday, T-Mobile and Google launched the G1, previously known as the HTC Dream, the first Android-compatible mobile phone. Comparisons with the 3G iPhone were immediate and obvious; the G1 is about the same height and width as the iPhone, but it's about twice as thick. It will sell for a little less, $179 vs. $199 for the 3G iPhone, and like the iPhone is available only on a two-year plan. The G1 has several more buttons than the iPhone, the most important of which are part of a slide-out QWERTY keyboard, which, of course, the iPhone doesn't have.

As you'd expect, the G1 is very Google-centric; you have to have a Gmail account in order to use the phone, and all the other Google services are front-and-center. It has a lot of location-centric, GPS-based features--even more than the iPhone, and unlike the iPhone, turn-by-turn navigation applications will be possible. And, developers can add applications to the G1 without review or approval by Google or T-Mobile, so it's a far more open platform than the iPhone.

There is a "but", however, and as this video from Engadget shows, in this case the "but" is that the iPhone is just much better integrated, and operates much more smoothly, than the G1. However, that's to be expected, since Google's Android is designed to operate on a wide variety of devices, some of which Google will have very little control over, while the iPhone and the version of OS X that the iPhone runs are engineered together. Android is a "generalist" system, while the iPhone is very tightly integrated.

I'll withhold my final verdict until I can play with the G1 myself, but from everything I've seen, it's not as refined as either the iPhone or the most recent BlackBerry models, but nevertheless, it's a very good first effort.

Something's coming from Adobe and Google

I'll be following two big announcements tomorrow. First, Adobe will launch Creative Suite 4 at events around the world. In this column, I normally write about Flash Video, but the applications in Creative Suite, including Photoshop, Dreamweaver and Acrobat, are Adobe's true bread and butter. I've been using betas of Dreamweaver and Fireworks CS4 for some time; both products, which came from Macromedia in the Adobe-Macromedia merger, now look and feel more like Adobe applications. Whether that's better or worse depends on whether you prefer the old or new user interfaces. To my eye, the functionality of the CS4 applications has been modestly upgraded, at best. We'll know more tomorrow.

(Update 10:14 p.m. Pacific Time, September 22, 2008) Adobe has posted details of the new CS4 bundles on its website, prior to the announcement events tomorrow. As with CS3, there are seven bundles: Standard and Premium versions of the Web, Design and (Video) Production bundles, plus a Master Collection that includes everything. There are no bargains, either: Unless you were one of the few people who purchased 3.3 versions of the bundles, upgrades start at $499 for the Standard bundle versions, $599 for the Premium versions, and $899 for the Master Collection. If you're starting from scratch, the Standard bundles are $1,399, the Premium bundles are $1,699, and the Master Collection is $2,499. (All prices are in US dollars).

Image via CrunchBase
The bigger announcement, at least in terms of press interest, will be the T-Mobile/Google annoumcement of the first Android phone, the HTC Dream, and of the imminent completion of T-Mobile's 3G mobile service rollout throughout the U.S. Android phones will compete with iPhones and Windows Mobile-based smartphones at the top of the mobile phone food chain, and the Dream is rumored to sell for the same $199 price (on a two-year plan) as the base 3G iPhone. The Dream will have a slide-out QWERTY keyboard, which promises to make it easier to use for power emailers than the iPhone (yet most likely still at a disadvantage vis-a-vis the BlackBerry.) All of the applications in Google's Android store will be free, at least initially, and anyone can post applications (the countdown to the first Android malware has already begun.)

I've been playing with the Android development system on my PC for some time, but I'm reserving judgment on how the Dream performs until I get a chance to try it. I used to be a T-Mobile customer, and if the Dream lives up to the hype, I may well switch back. Again, more tomorrow.