Episode 5 of the Feldman File videoblog is live!

This week's episode of the Feldman File videoblog is live on YouTube! If you can't see it here, click here to view it in your browser. Here are the stories in this week's show:

• Google's $6 billion offer for Groupon is rejected, but it acquires DRM specialist Widevine
• Verizon Wireless fires up its LTE broadband network and launches its first devices
• Comcast extends its agreement to acquire NBC Universal and contends with complaints from Level 3 and Zoom Telephonics
• Adobe releases the first beta of Flash Player 10.2
• The U.S. Justice Department is forced to drop charges against an accused Xbox 360 modder
• Flipboard adds HTML5 support and advertising

You may not be able to see Clear(ly) for much longer

Clearwire, the U.S. wireless broadband provider, is fighting for its life. Operating under the Clear name, Clear offers WiMAX services itself and through Sprint. Even as the company was announcing record subscriber growth last week, it also announced a 15% layoff, delays in opening up the Denver and Miami markets, dramatic slowdowns in the number of new retail stores to be opened, and a virtual shutdown of its advertising and promotion efforts. In addition, executives from Sprint, Clearwire's largest investor, resigned from the company's board of directors.

Now comes news that Sprint has initiated arbitration proceedings with Clearwire over the amount of money that Sprint has to pay Clearwire for use of that company's 4G mobile phones. According to FierceTelecom, Clearwire claims that several hundred thousand 4G phones are being used in areas with no 4G coverage, and that Sprint is supposed to make monthly payments to Clearwire for every 4G phone it sells, whether or not it's used in an area that supports 4G. Sprint disagrees and has initiated arbitration. Sprint charges its subscribers $10/month extra for the 4G phones it sells, whether or not the 4G service is used, and Clearwire is apparently claiming some or all of that $10 fee.

This comes on the heels of yet another story suggesting that Sprint might invest additional money in Clearwire. However, it's difficult to see how motivated Sprint is to invest more money in Clearwire if it can't be bothered to make monthly payments of no more than a few million dollars for the right to use all its 4G phones on Clearwire's network.

In more normal economic times, the most likely outcome for Clearwire is that Sprint would purchase 100% of the company and fold it into Sprint's operations. However, Sprint doesn't appear to want to do that. What may actually be happening is that Sprint is looking for a strategy for transitioning to LTE, which is being adopted by all major U.S. carriers and is widely assumed to be the replacement for WiMAX, even for Clearwire. Sprint needs a 4G solution as a differentiating advantage until it gets LTE up and running, and for that it needs Clearwire. However, that advantage isn't worth acquiring all of Clearwire.

Therefore, even with the arbitration, the most likely outcome is that Sprint will invest enough in Clearwire to keep it afloat with no new markets or major capital investments until Sprint gets LTE running nationwide. After that, Clearwire will be on its own.

If you're thinking about buying a Sprint 4G phone or Clear's service and equipment, you may want to wait. Verizon will launch its LTE service later this year, AT&T will follow soon after in 2011, and by this time next year, WiMAX may be a footnote in wireless history.

Not much on the Android tablet front for this holiday season?

Two pieces of news point provide some insight into the timing of the next major release of Google's Android, and its impact on Android tablets for the coming holiday season. Yesterday, Samsung formally announced that all four major U.S. mobile carriers will sell the Galaxy Tab in the U.S., starting before the end of the year. However, the company said that the Galaxy Tab will ship without 4G support and will not work as a phone. Today, Motorola announced in the Wall Street Journal that it will delay introduction of its first Android tablet until next year.

Let's put these two announcements in perspective: Google has said that the current version of Android, 2.2, also called Froyo, is not appropriate for tablets. While Google will approve access for devices to its Android Market on a case-by-case basis, the company has called for tablet vendors to wait for the release of Android 3.0, also called Gingerbread. Motorola Co-CEO Sanjay Jha seconded Google's recommendation, saying that he doesn't believe that Froyo is appropriate for tablets and that Motorola will wait to release its tablet until Android is ready.

In yesterday's announcement, Samsung said that while the Galaxy Tab will run Froyo, it has written apps specifically for the device to take advantage of its capabilities. Samsung warned that most existing Android Market apps won't run properly on the Galaxy Tab.

Consider one additional item: Verizon is launching its LTE 4G service in 30 cities in the U.S. before the end of the year, and Motorola was widely reported to be supplying a tablet for that launch. Therefore, there was an assumption that Google would release Gingerbread in November. However, we now know that the Motorola tablet won't ship until 2011 and that Samsung won't support 4G in the Galaxy Tab when it ships later this year.

Put it all together, and it's fairly clear that Gingerbread won't ship until 2011. That means that all of the Android tablets that ship this year will be using an operating system unsuited for tablets, and will have limited or no access to the Android Market. For these reasons, I believe that the forecasts for big sales of Android tablets this holiday season are going to have to be scaled back considerably.

Apple will continue to have a largely open field, unhindered by significant competition, until next year. I have no idea if there's any truth to the rumors that Apple will launch a 7" iPad in time for the holiday season, but if they do, it will only add momentum to Apple's tablet business and push competitors deeper in the hole for 2011.