Set-top boxes and game consoles: The $99 option

Last week, I wrote about installing my OUYA game console, which lists for $99 (U.S.) OUYA's isn't the only Android game console--there are several available or in development, all of which sell in the $99-$129 price range and all of which run "casual" games. $99 is also the consensus price point for over-the-top (OTT) set-top boxes from Roku, Vizio, Apple and other vendors.

It's very unlikely that hardcore gamers will prefer Android consoles to the Xbox One or Sony's Playstation 4. Even with a Tegra 4 chip set, which some of the newer Android consoles will have this fall, they won't have the performance to be able to compete with Microsoft's or Sony's consoles. On the other hand, while the Xbox One will have features that the $99 set-top boxes don't, such as voice recognition and gesture control, it's equally unlikely that set-top buyers will be willing to spend $400 more to get them. In short, serious gamers want high-end game consoles and are willing to pay for them, while Internet set-top box buyers who aren't gamers are unlikely to pay a high premium in order to get gaming features.

For the OUYA and similar devices to succeed, they have to prove that people want to play the same games that they already play on their smartphones and tablets on their big-screen televisions as well. Despite OUYA's successful Kickstarter campaign, that's still an unproven hypothesis. In addition, the Internet set-top box market is still far from proven--Logitech dropped its Google TV-based STB, Boxee is said to be looking for an acquirer or additional capital, Roku is increasingly emphasizing software licensing to HDTV manufacturers, and Apple TV has graduated from being a "hobby" but still contributes minuscule revenues to the company.

It's still too early to tell if there's a market for either low-cost game consoles or third-party Internet set-top boxes at any price. We may get more clarity by the end of this year's Holiday season.

The $199 Surface for Windows RT tablet--why the rumors might need to be true

There are legions of reports, starting with Engadget, that Microsoft may price its entry-level Surface for Windows RT tablet at $199. The reports tend to fall into three categories:

1. Microsoft would never do that to its licensees, 
2. It would be awful for its licensees if Microsoft did it, and
3. Microsoft can afford to do it.

In a sense, all three are true: Under normal circumstances, the last thing that Microsoft would want to do is to compete with its hardware licensees. If Microsoft did it, its (four, count 'em, four) Windows RT licensees would undoubtedly be hurt--there's no way that Asus, Dell, Lenovo and Samsung could, or would, match that price. And yes, Microsoft can afford it--and it has a history of deficit-spending its way into markets. It's estimated that the company lost several billion dollars on its Xbox game console business before it became profitable, and the company recently took a $6 billion write-off on its acquisition of online advertising company aQuantive. The company has also lost billions of dollars on its online business, although it's still nowhere near profitability after years of investments.

I fall into a fourth camp: Microsoft has to do it, for the same reason that the company rushed out its Surface tablets with a last-minute, under-rehearsed announcement that didn't include any price or availability details. My premise is that developers simply aren't showing much interest in creating apps for the tablet user interface formerly called Metro. Microsoft knows better than anyone else whether developers are showing interest in Metro--they know how many developers are using Visual Studio to create apps, and at least roughly, how many apps are under development.

Microsoft also knows that the biggest strength of the iOS platform is its enormous collection of apps, and that Android struggled as a tablet platform because of a lack of apps. Without a strong assortment of apps, and with no price advantage over the iPad and Android, Windows RT will be "dead on arrival." Microsoft has probably already resigned itself to having a big "app gap" when Windows RT ships, so it has to come up with another motivation to get consumers to buy Windows RT tablets, and thus build an attractive market for app developers. That motivation is price.

Microsoft's big lesson may be HP's experience with the webOS TouchPad. At $399, TouchPads gathered dust at Best Buy stores around the U.S. However, when HP dropped the price to $99, hundreds of thousands of the tablets flew off the shelves, even though they were discontinued and HP's commitment to further webOS development was in serious doubt. Demand was so great that HP built more of the tablets, and those that are still available sell at prices close to the original retail price.

Microsoft has to get a lot of Windows RT tablets into consumers' hands in order to encourage developers to write for the platform. If the company believed that the tablets under development by its licensees wouldn't be popular enough to make much of a difference, it had to act--first with the Surface pre-announcement, and now, with a $199 price that will be too good for a lot of people to pass up.

I go back to my point above--Microsoft isn't afraid of taking big losses in order to buy its way into a market. It's also not afraid to lose money on hardware--estimates of Microsoft's costs for replacing Xbox 360 game consoles with the "Red Ring of Death" problem range as high as $2.5 billion. So, while selling the Surface for Windows RT below cost would certainly be an act of desperation, it's already in Microsoft's play book.

E3: Thoughts on Microsoft, Nintendo and Sony

Microsoft, Nintendo and Sony have now all had their press events at E3. Let me preface this by saying that I'm at best a casual gamer, and I track the game console market only where it intersects with online video or other areas of interest. Therefore, I'm going to focus mainly on technology, not titles.

In my opinion, perhaps the most important product shown by the three companies was Nintendo's 3DS, both because it's a new platform and it displays 3D without requiring separate glasses. Nintendo dominates the handheld game console market, and the 3DS will help to maintain Nintendo's lead. What was disappointing, however, was that Nintendo announced neither a ship date nor a price for the 3DS.

Microsoft's Kinect (the new name for Project Natal) will serve as a strong mid-life "kicker" for the Xbox 360 platform. Kinect has a price ($150 in the U.S.), a release date (November 4th) and a collection of 14 games that will take advantage of the Kinect technology. Kinect and similar products could lead to controller-free remote controls and user interfaces for a variety of devices in the living room.

Sony announced pricing and availability for PlayStation Move, Sony's take on the Wiimote. The Move will be available in the U.S. on September 19th for $49.99, or as part of a bundle with one Move, a PlayStation Eye (one Eye is needed per PlayStation 3 in order to use Move controllers) and a copy of the PlayStation Move Sports Champions game, for $99.99.

This generation of game consoles is beginning to look a bit old, and both Microsoft and Sony are trying to inject life into their platforms with new controllers. Nintendo apparently feels that Microsoft and Sony are only now beginning to catch up with the Wii, and is focusing its attention on the 3DS and more Wii games. In any event, there weren't any overwhelming announcements from any of the three console makers.

A crack in the wall: Xbox Live gets ESPN3.com

Earlier today, Microsoft made a number of Xbox-related announcements, including that ESPN will be making ESPN3.com available as part of annual Xbox Live Gold subscriptions, which cost $50/year. When I first heard the announcement, I thought that it referred to on-demand sports events that had already taken place, but ESPN3.com provides more than 3,500 live sporting events each year in the U.S.

There's a fairly large community of cable subscribers who subscribe mainly to get ESPN. If they can get ESPN3.com, plus Netflix and other services, through their Xbox 360s, they may drop their cable subscriptions (they'll still need cable or DSL for high-speed internet) and use a combination of Xbox Gold and over-the-air broadcasts. Though small, this is a crack in the cable operators' ability to keep control of programming.