Is Apple moving to an incremental product release strategy?

Yesterday's announcement of the iPhone 4S disappointed a lot of people, not just because of Tim Cook's low-key presentation. Many observers were expecting an all-new iPhone 5 with a larger display and a case design similar to the iPad 2. Instead, they got an iPhone 4 with a faster processor and better camera. As a practical matter, the functional difference between what was generally expected in the "iPhone 5" and what Apple actually delivered in the iPhone 4S isn't great. Apple is also going to sell a ton of iPhone 4S phones, regardless of what the pundits think.

The question is whether the iPhone 4S is an interim product designed to buy time in order to get a true 4G LTE model ready, or whether it represents an overall slowdown in product revisions by Apple. On the desktop, the iMac design hasn't changed much in years; the big changes have been internal, with minor cosmetic external revisions. The Mac Pro's external design has barely changed since it was introduced in 2006. There's an excellent chance that the next iPad will combine the iPad 2's physical design with a faster processor, higher-resolution display, and perhaps, a better camera.

Does it mean that Apple will slow down its product development cycles? Will Apple start releasing entirely new iPhones and iPads every 24 to 36 months? Longer product lives would certainly give Apple an opportunity to amortize tooling costs over far more units. It would also give Apple more time to develop completely new designs. After all, Apple will still be selling the iPhone 3GS when it ships the 4S, more than two years after it was first introduced. The 3GS is still a viable entry-level smartphone.

So, don't be surprised if the next iPad looks very much like the iPad 2, and if future iPad and iPhone exterior designs are changed less often. Apple may see no reason to issue an entirely new model every year, until competitors catch up.

The iPhone 4 antenna problem: An overreaction?

Earlier today, Consumer Reports Magazine reported that it gave the iPhone 4 its "Not Recommended" rating because of the problems with signal drop-off and lost calls when holding the phone so that both antennas are bridged together. Consumer Reports tested the iPhone 4 in its own facilities using its own cell tower simulator and other testing equipment. The problem has been duplicated by many other testers, so let's get a few points out of the way:

1. The problem is real and affects anyone using an iPhone 4 in an area that doesn't have a strong AT&T signal.
2. Even though the FCC doesn't require that cell phones be held during testing, Apple should have done its own tests well before the iPhone 4 shipped.
3. The software fix proposed by Apple to "correct" the number of bars of signal strength that are displayed has nothing to do with the antenna problem. It won't fix the signal attenuation caused by holding the phone "the wrong way."

Apple screwed up badly and hasn't helped itself with its proposed fix. However, Consumer Reports also said that it fixed the problem with a strip of duct tape, and that leaving the antenna issue aside, the iPhone 4 is perhaps the best smart phone it's ever tested. So, if you can fix the problem with $0.01 worth of adhesive tape, it it really all that much of a problem?

In my opinion, there's been a massive overreaction to an overall minor problem. Consumer Reports wants Apple to give every iPhone 4 owner a free bumper, and Apple could surely come up with something a lot less expensive than the $29 bumpers that it's selling. (Recently-published testing showed that the $29 bumpers eliminate the antenna problem but provide no real protection for the phone, so something lighter and much cheaper should work as well.) The best thing that Apple can do is to announce a real fix, a timetable for implementation, and the process for requesting or distributing the fix.

AT&T Lunacy

"There's this new iPhone 4 coming, and we're going to start getting pre-orders on June 15th, and lots of people are going to want one, so be sure to have everything working on the website in time, okay?" Apparently, that message never got to AT&T's website team, because it's been all but impossible to upgrade existing iPhone accounts to the iPhone 4 all day. It can't be done through AT&T's site, Apple's site, or the new Apple Store app that the company just released for the iPhone. It's gotten so bad that the title for Apple's own ordering page is "iPhone 4 Goes on Pre-Sale, Purportedly."

Could THIS finally be the straw that breaks the camel's back, the event that causes Apple to say "We need a second carrier in the U.S."? Probably not. I don't know what it would take for Apple to say "Enough's enough," but I wouldn't want to be part of AT&T's website team right now.

Update: I just managed to place an upgrade order through AT&T. It's a miracle!