Friday, March 12, 2010

Why the term "Exit Strategy" should be kicked to the curb

Mark Suster, a respected Los Angeles-based VC, has been taking a lot of flak for a blog post he wrote suggesting that the saying "fail fast" should be discarded. Many people took Suster's comments as a rebuke of Lean Startup principles, but they were in fact highly supportive of Agile and Lean concepts. Suster was targeting entrepreneurs who use "fail fast" as an excuse to fail using someone else's money: "If at first you don't succeed, quit and make someone else pay for it."

Recognizing that misery loves company, I want to take on another popular phrase that should be kicked to the curb: "Exit strategy", specifically when it's used in the following sentence: "What's your exit strategy?"

If a company is successful, there are lots of possible exit strategies:
  • Sell the company to a bigger acquirer for a lot of money
  • Merge with another company
  • Go IPO
You can also continue to run the company successfully and grow from internal growth, or acquire other companies.  A successful company doesn't have to worry about exit strategies.

An unsuccessful company, on the other hand, needs to worry about exit strategies a lot. The options for an unsuccessful company include:
  • Selling the company, usually for a fraction of the amount put in by investors
  • Liquidating the assets of the company in the hope that something (a product, patents, etc) will fetch a good price
  • Using available cash reserves to pay off creditors and shut the company down
  • Going bankrupt
None of those are appealing options.

Moreover, the startups that are asked about their exit strategies are usually the ones at an early enough stage of their development that it's impossible to say what an appropriate exit strategy should be. So, the founders or managers make up an exit strategy that they think VCs will want to hear. If the IPO market is vibrant, that will be the first choice; in a period like today where few IPOs are launched, they'll emphasize acquisition or merger.

The appropriate question isn't "What's your exit strategy?", it's "What's your business model?" and "How will you make this into a successful business?". The answer to those questions will determine whether the startup will even get to the point where a positive exit strategy is possible.
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2 comments:

Mark Suster said...

I agree that the primary questions are about business model and what will make you successful. And if you never raise venture capital maybe that's enough. Unfortunately VC is a unique instrument. VC's raise money from LPs (limited partners) and the average life a fund is 10 years (with maybe 2-3 years of extensions). That means the VC's by definition need an "exit."

Historically this was an IPO. Lately IPOs have proven more difficult so most businesses are looking for a trade sale. The only other real exit for a VC is to sell its position to a secondary buyer, which isn't good for anybody.

I know it's not that sensible to have to talk about an exit so early in your business. The problem is that the VC will be thinking about it. They're thinking, "I invest at price A, I hope we can achieve a value B, which means I could sell for price C ... but only if there would be a buyer (or two)." You're best to address this yourself because then you control what they think the right buyer might be.

Or ... maybe better not raising VC at all! Thanks for the nice post - I enjoy furthering the debate.

Mark

Unknown said...

Hi Mark,

Thanks for your comment! I agree that an exit strategy, or liquidity event, is absolutely essential to a VC or any investor. I just don't believe that many early-stage startups have either the operating history or the knowledge to figure out what their value is going to be at some date in the future.

They're going to provide pro forma financial projections, and from them, you can estimate their future value...if they hit their numbers, if the economy doesn't take a nosedive, if the market segment they're in doesn't fall out of favor, if, if, if.

The investor has to make their own estimates and forecasts in order to decide whether or not to make the investment. The startup has to provide its own estimates of how it'll perform. But, until the company has significant operating experience and a track record, any idea of the exit strategy or the value of the company at exit is at best an educated guess.

All that said, thanks for your thoughtful response, and for standing up for your opinions about the "fail fast" mantra!