For 4K cameras, price is A thing, but not THE thing

I'm back from NAB, where the overriding theme this year was 4K everything--cameras, monitors, editors, special effects, routers, switchers, etc. Perhaps the biggest battle was in cameras, where AJA Video entered the market for the first time and Blackmagic Design and Sony announced new 4K cameras. (JVC also announced its first 4K digital cinematography cameras, but gave no prices or availability dates.) 4K cameras have been a "thing" ever since the RED One, but $10,000 was the least that you could spend to buy one (Canon's 1D C) until Blackmagic shipped its 4K Production Camera late last year, priced at $2,995.

The floodgates have now opened:

• Panasonic's GH4: $1,699, or $3,299 bundled with its SDI/XLR interface dock
• Sony's A7S: $2,499.99, will ship in July
• Blackmagic's 4K Production Camera: $2,995
• Blackmagic's URSA EF: $5,995
• AJA's Cion: $8,995

None of these cameras cost more than a fraction of the price of an ARRI Alexa ($80,000+) or Amira ($40,000-$52,000 depending on enabled features,) RED EPIC-M Dragon ($50,000+), or Sony F55 ($29,000+) or F65 ($65,000+). You'd think that ARRI, RED and Sony would be shaking in their boots, but they're not. There are two reasons why the companies that make high-end cameras aren't necessarily threatened by the new inexpensive models:

1. There are many elements that determine whether or not a specific camera is appropriate for an application, and
2. You get what you pay for.

Here are some (but far from all) of the elements of camera design that influence how the camera performs and what it's good (or not good) for:

• Imager size
• Imager resolution
• Color space (e.g., YUV or xvYCC)
• Color sampling (e.g., 4:2:0, 4:2:2 or 4:4:4)
• Bit depth (8-bit vs. 10-bit)
• Video output resolution (DCI 4K (4096 x 2160), UHD (3840 x 2160), 1080, 720)
• Video compression formats (e.g., AVCHD, H.264, ProRes, DNxHD, XAVC, XAVC S, AVC-Intra, AVC-Ultra)
• RAW storage and/or output
• Frame rates supported at specified resolution (e.g., 24, 25, 29.97, 30, 59.94, 60 or 120)
• Dynamic range in stops
• Native ISO speed
• Sensitivity (maximum usable ISO speed, NOT the camera's rated top ISO speed)
• Lens mount(s)
• Lens control (manual, automatic or limited automatic)
• Image stabilization (digital or optical, in the camera body or in the lens, or no stabilization)
• Viewfinder, display screen, both or none
• User interface design (e.g., touchscreen(s), menus, dedicated buttons and knobs)
• Storage capacity
• Storage media
• Internal or external storage
• Video interface(s) (HDMI or HD-SDI, with different HDMI versions and, for HD-SDI, maximum speeds)
• Audio connector(s)
• Balanced or unbalanced audio in
• Phantom power availability
• Run time on battery
• Removable or permanent battery
• External power voltage and connector
• Camera shape
• Camera weight
• Ruggedness
• Manufacturer and design maturity (how much experience does the manufacturer have in designing cameras, and how long has the manufacturer been making this particular camera)

There's an enormous number of elements to consider, and some elements work much better for certain applications than others. In some cases, buyers have a wealth of cameras to choose from, while in other cases, there may only be a handful that can do what they need.

Rather than salivating when you hear about a new low-priced camera with attractive features, ask yourself these questions:

1. What am I going to use it for?
2. What trade-offs am I willing to accept (for example, are you willing to live with less sensitivity in order to get a higher-quality compression format?)
3. How often will I use the camera (do you know that you'll be using it over and over on new projects, or do you have one project in mind and you don't know when you'll have the next one?)
4. How much can I afford to pay?

Answering the first two questions will allow you to compile a list of cameras that meet your needs. Answering the final two questions will tell you whether you should buy or rent the camera that you can afford. In some cases, you may decide to buy a less-expensive camera and use your remaining budget to buy lenses or mounting equipment. In other cases, you could rent a camera and use the savings elsewhere on your production, or rent a camera that you can't afford to buy that's superior to other choices for your application. In short, you should answer the four questions first, rather than starting with the price of the camera and instead hoping that it will meet your needs.

Post-NAB business idea, 2013 edition

Every year, I return from NAB with a buzz from seeing new products and meeting new people. I get energized with lots of ideas--and then start penciling them out, which usually results in a bad case of reality setting in. Here's my 2013 idea:

A lot of people are repelled by the atrocious state of television news in many markets: A focus on crime and accidents, along with shoving cameras and microphones in the faces of victims' family members. My premise is borne out by the ever-older audiences for broadcast news: People who grew up watching it keep watching, but younger viewers get their news from the Internet. There has to be a market (albeit a small one) for people who want more serious local news, and they're likely to be both better educated and higher income than the population in general--prime targets for upscale advertisers.

The costs of building out a streaming-based (not over-the-air) news-focused television station are a fraction of what it would have cost to build a broadcast station just a few years ago. In fact, you can build eight or ten streaming stations for the cost of a single broadcast station. You don't need transmitters, antennas, studio-to-transmitter links, or any of the overhead required to fulfill FCC requirements. LED lighting and low-powered equipment make it feasible to use former retail space for production and post-production, and there's plenty of retail space available for lease in most major markets.

Start with a streaming station in a single major market to test the concept and identify what works and what doesn't. Then, over time, build out additional stations in other large markets, and create a network the way it was done in the early radio days--one station at a time. At a minimum, each station would produce two daily newscasts; as the network grows, those newscasts and additional stories would be fed to the network to create two national newscasts. In addition, some of the local stations would produce their own programming, such as talk and children's shows. The best of that programming would also run on the network. All programming, both local and network, would be available both live and on demand.

That covers equipment and real estate, but one area where you can't save much money is labor. A streaming station doesn't require as many people as a comparable broadcast station, but if the goal is to provide a superior news alternative to existing stations, you've got to hire experienced journalists. Yes, lots of stations and networks are laying off personnel, as are newspapers, but good people need to be paid appropriately. I'm a strong believer that if you're running a for-profit business, you should pay a living wage to the people who work for you, even if there's some way to get around it with interns and freelancers. People can't eat "exposure."

To staff a seven-day-a-week news operation producing two daily newscasts, by my count it would require 42 people at various salary levels. That's more than $2 million per year in salaries and benefits, even in a fairly small market. Advertising revenues aren't assured until the station can demonstrate that it has a loyal and worthwhile audience.

I believe that this idea has tremendous promise for someone who's willing to invest with the expectation that 1) Break-even may be five years out, and 2) To fully capitalize on the opportunity, the network will have to be built out. I can't fund it, and it's unlikely that I can find someone who will, so it goes into the drawer, likely to be pulled out again after NAB 2014.

Update, 4/26/2012: Google would be the perfect company to launch streaming stations, for several reasons:

1. It fits very well with YouTube, and adds a live, local news component that YouTube doesn't have.
2. The local stations can double as production and post-production space for YouTube's "creators," expanding beyond their existing facilities in Los Angeles, New York and London.
3. Google TV would get the streaming stations onto big-screen TVs.
4. Other than Netflix, Google is probably the biggest buyer of Internet bandwidth in the world, and it operates its own international fiber network that rivals the major telcos. Its bandwidth costs, a big part of any streaming network, would be the lowest in the industry.
5. As Google expands Google Fiber, locating streaming stations in Fiber cities would allow Google to compete with cable operators that have their own local channels.
6. Google already has 12,000 advertising salespeople worldwide, so it's well-equipped to sell advertising for a network of streaming stations.

Teradek goes upmarket

I've been waiting for a little free time to write about the new Teradek video encoders and decoders that I saw at NAB. Teradek has been known for very cost-effective camera-top video encoders and wireless broadband transmitters. They've scooped up a fair share of the field video acquisition market that was pioneered by companies like LiveU, TVU and Streambox--and those companies have responded with their own lower-priced encoder/decoder systems. Just before NAB, Teradek started shipping its $699 VidiU live streaming encoder to reviewers; the company may have already begun customer shipments as I write this post. The VidiU brings much of the functionality of Teradek's Cube and Bond to a "prosumer" encoder priced less than $1,000.

When I visited Teradek's booth, I expected that the VidiU would be the company's primary new product, but I was wrong. The VidiU was on display, of course, but Teradek announced several new products, all of which are aimed at broadcasters and cable networks. Note: Teradek hasn't announced pricing or availability dates for any of these products. Here's a brief summary:

• The Bond Pro is an integrated encoder/cellular bonding system that's designed to attach to the Gold Mount and V-Mount battery plates used by professional ENG camcorders. It also includes an SD card proxy recorder, and has redesigned mounts for up to six 3G/4G/LTE wireless broadband modems that provide better protection from rough handling.
• The Bond II is a Bond Pro that's designed for camera-top mounting. Unlike the Bond Pro, it has its own internal rechargeable battery.
• The Edge is a Bond II in a 1U rackmount chassis, designed for permanent mounting in ENG trucks and mobile studios. Unlike the Bond Pro and Bond II, which use customer-supplied broadband modems, the Edge has six built-in 3G/4G/LTE modems as well as a WiFi hotspot. Up to 14 external antennas can be connected to the Edge for better cellular connectivity and WiFi range.
• The Slice is a pair of 1U rackmounted H.264 encoders and decoders. The encoder has one HD-SDI input and two outputs, as well as a WiFi hotspot in the encoder and a USB connection, while the decoder has a HD-SDI output and both Ethernet and USB connections.

Teradek also announced three new and updated software products:

• Sputnik 2.0 is the updated version of Teradek's Linux-based software for taking bitstreams from the multiple wireless broadband connections from the Bond, Bond II, Bond Pro and Edge, and bonding them back into a single H.264 video stream. It also enables tunneling of non-bonded point-to-point video streams from one network to another, supposedly eliminating the need to open firewall ports. Sputnik 2.0 has improved adaptive bit rate management that responds faster to changes in available bandwidth and bit rates from the encoder, as well as a new feature that reduces audio and video loss when a broadband modem drops its connection or is physically removed.
• Core is a new application that enables control of all of a organization's Teradek encoders, cellular bonding systems and decoders from a single location. One encoder's output can be routed to multiple decoders, and all settings of all of the devices can be managed from the Core console, allowing teams in the field to focus on getting stories instead of configuring encoders.
• Lokr is a new digital media and metadata management program that stores and logs all digital audio/visual media and metadata generated locally or remotely. It works directly with file-based cameras and existing VTR systems, and can mirror recorded files to a local RAID array or to a cloud-based storage system like Dropbox.

Even though these products are likely to be significantly more expensive than Teradek's previous products, it doesn't appear that Teradek is going after the high-end encoder market that companies such as Ateme, Elemental, Ericsson, Harmonic and many others compete in. Instead, Teradek continues to focus on mobile encoding products. Its Slice is a "toe in the water" for fixed-location encoding, but it rounds out Teradek's product line rather than strikes major new ground for the company.

In fact, all of the new products are aimed at offering a much more comprehensive product line: More professional encoders, rack-mounted devices, and software that enables centralized management of an entire network of Teradek devices, all make the product line much more appealing to major market broadcasters. Everyone from individuals streaming live webcasts from their living rooms to big-market broadcasters are now covered by Teradek products.

Get NAB2010 press releases without having a press pass

As NAB 2010 starts, one of the biggest problems is identifying what's new. The Las Vegas Convention Center is huge, and despite NAB's best efforts to try to organize exhibitors into logical areas, there are always companies that aren't where you expect them. It makes it challenging to see everything that might be of interest.

Reporters, editors and industry analysts can get access to the press room at NAB, where exhibitors post press releases and product information, but you can only get in with a press badge. However, you can get much the same access by checking the websites of four press release distribution services. Keep in mind that most companies post their press releases before the opening of NAB or within the first day or two of the conference to insure that they get press coverage during the show.

Here are my favorite sites (and keep in mind that most companies only post through one service, so you'll need to visit all the sites):

• PR Newswire (on the home page, select "News Releases" in the search area and then search for NAB)
• Business Wire (go to the home page and search for NAB)
• Virtual Press Office (click on NAB2010 on the home page)
• PRWeb (go to the home page and search for NAB)

A preview of some things to look for at NAB

I don't expect anything revolutionary at NAB this year, except for a lot of 3D, but the cost of HD capture and post-production keeps going down, so there will be lots to see. Here are a few things to look out for, in no particular order:

• Adobe will be launching Creative Suite 5 on the opening day of NAB. It's already previewing some interesting new Photoshop and Premiere Pro features, including the ability to natively edit AVCHD footage without first converting it into another format.
• Sony will be showing its new NXCAM camcorders, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it show prototypes of its new AVCHD-compatible DSLRs.
• Panasonic will be showing its new $20,000 3D camcorder, which should be getting close to shipment.
• Canon will be showing a camcorder with its new MPEG-2 Full HD codec, most likely along with its line of videos DSLRs.
• ARRI will be showing its new Alexa (A-EV/A-OV) digital cinematography cameras, starting at 50,000 Euros.
• RED will be hosting an offsite event (registration required) at the Tropicana Hotel on April 14th where it'll be showing the current state of Scarlet and EPIC.
• Lowel and Videssence will be showing their first LED lights. The advantages of LEDs over other forms of lighting (no flicker, almost infinite color control, virtually no heat and much lower power consumption) are obvious. Just about everyone in the video lighting business is now offering LED products.
• DSLRs will be another big theme of the show. Many companies will be showing add-ons for making them more usable for video applications (think Redrock Micro, Zacuto, Chrosziel and many others).
• No hints yet on any big new announcements from Avid (which will be exhibiting at NAB) or Apple (which won't be.)

If you're going, be sure to pre-plan your booth visits and organize your time, because the Las Vegas Convention Center is huge and it takes time to get around the city. (The RED event, for example, is at the Tropicana, which is across from McCarran International Airport at the far south end of the Strip. Allow plenty of time to get there from the Convention Center.) Use the monorail as much as you can to avoid cab lines. If you're focused, you can see the show in a full day, but if you plan to attend sessions or off-site exhibits, allow yourself more time.

The Next Generation of Red

Red,NAB,Red One,Scarlet,Sony,Panasonic,Canon,Apple,Final Cut Studio

In some previous blog entries, I discussed the new products announced by Red at NAB. Scarlet, the "3K for under $3,000" camcorder announced for shipment next year, takes Red into an entirely new market segment, one in which the Japanese consumer electronic vendors (primarily Sony, Panasonic and Canon) have long played.

The current Red One lists for $17,500, but by the time lenses and accessories have been added, the cost can easily double (or more). At that price, there's enough margin for video system integrators to make money, and the systems are expensive enough for rental houses to have a steady market.

However, at $3,000 plus accessories, the Scarlet will clearly be a prosumer product that should sell in quantities many times that of the Red One. From interviews with Red executives at NAB, it seems clear that they see a market much bigger than that served by the mail-order video resellers such as B&H.

At the show, Red executives talked about the company's close relationship with Apple. It seems to me entirely possible that Scarlet, in a package closely integrated with Final Cut Studio, could be sold in Apple's stores, possibly even exclusively. This would give Red street-level access to consumers and media creation professionals around the world, without having to vet a sales channel store by store.

There have been rumors about Apple purchasing Red, but as I've written about previously, I think that Apple's hardware-agnostic approach to professional audio and video (as opposed to its hardware-centric approach to everything else) has worked in its favor vs. Avid. By buying Red, it could alienate its largest hardware partners, but by simply reselling a Red-branded Scarlet in its stores, it would remain agnostic, yet share the spotlight with the company that is fast becoming the Apple of video cameras.

Please keep in mind that this is speculation on my part; I have no inside information. However, I've felt for a long time that the design of camcorders needs a major overhaul in order to make them more usable, and that Apple is ideally suited to design and build such a next-generation product. A reselling partnership with Red could be the first step to such a product.

Returning from NAB

I'm now back in Silicon Valley, organizing my thoughts about the NAB conference that ends today. Here are a few thoughts to get started:

First, the final attendance count was 105,259, of which 28,310 came from outside the U.S. Press attendance was 1,296.

This year, the organizers expanded the charter of NAB to make it cover everything about content, but I think that the result is that the show is getting too diffuse. What had originally been a show focused on broadcasting now also covers filmmaking (from tiny independent films and documentaries to studio tentpoles,) podcasts (both audio and video,) Internet radio and streaming media, IPTV and more. NAB is probably still the foremost broadcasting, audio/video production and post-production show in the world, but the spectrum of topics and range of products available is getting too broad. Want a bag of three USB cables? You can find them on the show floor, along with products ranging up into the millions of dollars.

In the past, NAB tried to segregate products into physical areas. They still tried to do that this year, but odd products kept cropping up everywhere. There's simply too much demand for exhibit space to maintain any meaningful separation by function or application.

The reality is that the same product can be used for lots of things: A camera light can be used for a TV news interview, a video podcast, a short film or an epic. Almost any production or post-production tool has multiple applications. When a prosumer camcorder can be used for B-roll on a production that uses cameras costing hundreds of thousands of dollars, the walls that previously clearly separated applications start tumbling down.

So, should NAB continue to pursue its "come one, come all" approach to content? Lots of people like it, but I suspect that some of NAB's core membership, broadcasters, are grumbling that it's simply too hard to see, or even find, the products that are relevant to their businesses. The tent, so to speak, is getting uncomfortably large.

NAB: Fun With Audio

A few months ago, Avid made big news by pulling out of NAB. Well, apparently that decision didn't sit well with Digidesign, the pro audio division of Avid, which normally exhibits in the Avid booth. I discovered a Digidesign booth in the North Hall, much smaller than even Digidesign's normal display space within Avid's previous NAB booths, but a 20' x 20' booth nonetheless. There was a full-blown Icon console on one side, and a new C24 console and some other equipment on the other.

I also stopped by Euphonix's booth. The company, which specializes in very large, very expensive audio consoles, recently announced the MC Control and MC Mix, a pair of low-cost control surfaces for software such as Apple's Logic Studio and Final Cut Studio. There were two MC setups in the booth, and I had a number of questions and would have liked a demonstration. However, even though there were no other customers and a half-dozen Euphonix staffers in the booth, I was totally ignored.

Now, I'm not entirely chopped liver; I'm an Audio Engineering Society member, and I could have had an intelligent conversation, but I never got the chance. I suspect that Euphonix's salespeople were far more interested in selling their big, expensive "pro studios" products, but if that was the case, why did they even bother bringing the MC control surfaces to NAB? Note to exhibitors: Don't waste the space in your booths displaying products that you don't want to sell. And if you do want to sell them, don't ignore your customers. There are way too many competitors in the low-cost control surface market for Euphonix to take it for granted.

Live from NAB (Part 1)

I'm blogging from the show floor at NAB (the North Hall, to be precise.) It's too early for me to make any generalizations about announcements at the show, but the sound and fury is coming thick and fast in the camcorder world:

• Panasonic announced five new camcorders: Two top-end Varicam models (including one that uses P2 flash storage exclusively), an update of the prosumer HVX200, a higher-end HPX170 model and the HMC150, a prosumer AVCHD camcorder that should (at least in theory, based on its compression bitrate) match or exceed HDV quality.
  
• Sony announced US availability of the PDW-700, a XDCAM HD (optical disc) model, along with a preanouncement of the PMW-EX3, the next model in the highly-regarded XDCAM EX (flash-based, using the SxS format) family. The EX3 will feature interchangeable lenses, addressing perhaps the biggest drawback of the EX1. (The EX3 also looks as though it will be better balanced in the hand than the EX1, addressing the other major complaint.)
  
• Red fired off a couple of preannouncements: Scarlet, a 3K handheld camcorder expected to be priced under $3K, and Epic, a next-generation 5K camcorder expected to be priced in the $40K range. At this point, both products are scheduled for release in "early 2009," with features, specifications and prices highly likely to change.
  

Leaving MRG

MRG,Multimedia Research Group,NAB

Late last week, I gave notice to my employer, Multimedia Research Group (MRG), that I'll be leaving as soon as the Spring five-year Forecast is done, which will probably be before the end of April. It's never easy to leave a job, especially one that enabled me to return to Silicon Valley, and one in which the company's owner is a good friend with whom I've worked off and on for almost 20 years, but it's time to make a move.

There are three key reasons for me to move on. The first, and most important, is that MRG is a small company, and I need to increase my income. I recently got engaged, and the money that was sufficient for myself and two cats won't cut it for a family. The second reason is that the travelling that I've been doing has been exhausting. In the last fifteen months, I've visited London twice, Shanghai and Shenzhen, China on two separate trips, Singapore, Chicago, Boston, Amsterdam, Paris, Rio de Janeiro, and undoubtedly places that I've forgotten. It's harder for me to rebound than it was when I was travelling back and forth between California and Tokyo when I worked for Toshiba in the late 1980s.

My final reason is that I'd really like to get my hands dirty again with products or services, rather than just write and speak about what other people are doing. Analysts are observers--we sometimes consult one-on-one with clients, but we rarely have an integral role in defining or launching products.

I'll be representing MRG on a panel at the National Association of Broadcasters' convention in Las Vegas later this month, and I'll be continuing this blog. I'm "pursuing other opportunities," as the saying goes, so if you know of an opening, please let me know at lfeldman(at)feldmanfile.com.